The news from China in recent weeks has been dire. Violent strikes and protests are reported almost daily. Millions of workers are out of jobs. Economic indicators presage more gloom, with electricity production for industry falling 4% in October, the first time it has declined in a decade. So is China — the "fragile superpower," as historian Susan Shirk memorably termed it — about to experience the one thing its leaders have feared for years: a so-called hard landing of its economy that could spark widespread social unrest?
The gloom-and-doom camp makes a persuasive case. Nouriel Roubini, a professor at New York University, had been warning for years of the dangers of an international financial implosion — and the current economic crisis proved him depressingly right. In a recent article Roubini has laid out a bleak scenario for China. "The risk of a hard landing in China is sharply rising," he writes. "A deceleration in the Chinese growth rate ... is highly likely, and an even worse outcome cannot be ruled out." But a clique of China specialists inside the country predicts a different outcome. They believe that a range of factors unique to China will not only preserve it from the worst of the global meltdown but also keep its economy chugging along at about 8% GDP growth in 2009.
So who's right? I'd go with the locally based economists. While the U.S. fiscal package is unlikely to add even 1 percentage point to American growth, a recent report by Merrill Lynch estimates that the $600 billion stimulus Beijing unveiled in mid-November will likely add 3 percentage points. (And that was before China's provinces unveiled their own $1.4 trillion bailout plan, which depends on a massive infrastructure-building spree to boost the economy.) Such growth would be unachievable in other economies. But China remains a special mixture of raging capitalism resting on a foundation of state domination. "People who don't follow China on a regular basis can miss some of the underlying drivers of growth," says Arthur Kroeber, a Beijing-based economist, who cites factors such as changing demographics, the adoption of new technology from developed countries and rapid urbanization.
Yes, there will be plenty of pain. Kroeber and others predict a rough next few months. They also concede that a sharp decline in exports will hit China hard, possibly cutting 2.5 percentage points off growth in 2009. There's also the strong likelihood that tens of millions of dollars will disappear into China's bridges to nowhere — or into the pockets of corrupt local officials. Still, if any government can drive change by diktat, it's the Chinese Communist Party. Doomsayer Roubini writes: "The government cannot force corporations to spend or banks to lend." In fact, Beijing can do exactly that — and is doing so now. "On the outside, China's banks do look a lot more like normal Western commercial banks," says an investment-bank analyst with a decade of experience in China. "But every single senior officer right down to the manager of the smallest branch in Inner Mongolia is a Party member. And when the Party says, 'Jump or we're all in trouble,' they say, 'How high?'" The same principle applies to state-owned enterprises, which account for about a third of the nation's GDP.
Some of the problems China now faces are a result of economic policies that are finally kicking in at an inopportune time. Concerned earlier this year about spiking inflation and a blistering yearly growth rate of 11% or more, China's economic czars set out to cool things down. They introduced tough labor laws designed to decelerate production of lower-value-added goods. It's in that sector that hundreds of thousands of workers are now losing jobs. The same holds true for the bubbling property market, where Chinese authorities conveyed to potential home buyers that they would be wise to hold off. "The government basically said, 'You'd be an idiot to buy an apartment right now because we're going to make sure that prices drop like a stone,'" says the investment-bank analyst. "Chinese people stopped buying. Now the government is telling them, 'It would be a great time to buy, and the banks will be happy to lend to you.' Of course people will start buying again."
China's current economic woes come at a momentous point in history. Dec. 18 marks the 30th anniversary of when Deng Xiaoping launched the nation into the most extraordinary burst of economic development the world has ever seen. For almost this entire period, outsiders have been predicting that it wouldn't last. And each time, China has forged ahead. The financial crisis has led the whole world into uncharted territory. But the one constant in this changing world may be China's ability to surprise once more.
For the thesis statement, I have, "So is China — the "fragile superpower," as historian Susan Shirk memorably termed it — about to experience the one thing its leaders have feared for years: a so-called hard landing of its economy that could spark widespread social unrest?" Is this close? could you please point me inthe right direction?
Also, for statagies the author used to formulate his or her argument, I have: The author uses qoutes and opinions from people with high levels of expertise in economics and China's economy. The author also uses predictions given by people with high levels of expertise in economics. HE also uses results of reports done by economists. Facts and percentages are also used.
For, "what makes the argument viable and compelling?" I have: The arguments are viable and compelling because it includes predictions and opinions coming from prefessionals with different views on the situation. Both sides give stong arguments supporting thier claims and predictions about the China's economy. The author's argument is viable and compelling because the premises are stong and the sources the author uses to obtain the premises are credible.
Good analysis.
please review the rest of my answers and let me know if i have the right ideas and if i need to elaborate on anything more.
How does the author organize information to build his argument? I belive the author organized the information logically. He organized the information in a way that made it understandable to the readers. The author informed the audience of the situation. The the author showed arguments supporting viewpoints and claims from both sides of the situation. Next, the author gave his opinion on the situation. He then supported the claims he made with information, qoutes, and predictions from credible sources.
Does he include any counter arguments?
The authur does include counter arguments. He includes arguments from opposing viewpoints in the article. The author also refuted these counter arguments with information and opinions from credible sources.
What kinds of statistics, graphs, or illustrations does the author include?
The author includes the percentage of electricity falling in october. He includes the percentage of GPA growth predicted by China specialists. A report result estimante predicting percentage points is also included. China's bailout plan amount is used in the article. No illustrations or graphs are included.
In what ways would the visuals strenthen the author's arguments?
Graphs illustrating predected percentages, growthrates, and estimations coud show the audience the severity of predictions and how they could affect China's economy. The author could use visuals in this way to support his arguments.
These all are great answers.
Your thesis statement, "So is China — the "fragile superpower," as historian Susan Shirk memorably termed it — about to experience the one thing its leaders have feared for years: a so-called hard landing of its economy that could spark widespread social unrest?" is indeed a good summary of the main question being asked in the article.
Regarding the author's strategies for formulating the argument, you have correctly identified that the author uses quotes and opinions from experts in economics and China's economy. The author also relies on predictions and reports from economists. Moreover, the author includes facts and percentages to support their argument. These strategies help to enhance the credibility and reliability of the information presented.
As for the viability and compelling nature of the argument, you have made good points. The inclusion of predictions and opinions from professionals with different views on the situation adds depth and perspective to the argument. The author presents both sides of the argument, which allows readers to consider different perspectives and evaluate the strength of each. The use of credible sources and strong premises further supports the viability and compelling nature of the argument.
Overall, your analysis of the thesis statement, strategies used by the author, and the viability of the argument is accurate and well-explained.