Posted by **Janel** on Saturday, April 24, 2010 at 11:22pm.

You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.55. You are 89 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.

You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?

- MATH: PROBABILITIES -
**Maddison**, Sunday, April 25, 2010 at 12:22am
Well....

I am not %100 percent sure, but I think I have got the right answer.

100-89%=11%

Then, 85% of 11% is 9% (rounded)

So I would say 9%

- MATH: PROBABILITIES -
**Reiny**, Sunday, April 25, 2010 at 9:12am
Does this question come form a section in your course called Markov's chains?

if so, then set up a transition matrix with 2 columns called Die, Live and

two rows called water, no water

that would be

.85 .15

.55 .45

multiply that by

.11 .89 -- did water is last number

to get

.58 .417

so there is a 58% chance your neighbour forgot to water.

- MATH: PROBABILITIES -
**Anonymous**, Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 12:13am
both of you are wrong...

- MATH: PROBABILITIES -
**Anonymous**, Saturday, May 28, 2011 at 12:31pm
any one know the answer:(?

- MATH: PROBABILITIES -
**Lex**, Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 8:37pm
You need to use the rule of BAYES and the theorem of total probability.

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