posted by Janel on .
You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.55. You are 89 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.
You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?
I am not %100 percent sure, but I think I have got the right answer.
Then, 85% of 11% is 9% (rounded)
So I would say 9%
Does this question come form a section in your course called Markov's chains?
if so, then set up a transition matrix with 2 columns called Die, Live and
two rows called water, no water
that would be
multiply that by
.11 .89 -- did water is last number
so there is a 58% chance your neighbour forgot to water.
both of you are wrong...
any one know the answer:(?
You need to use the rule of BAYES and the theorem of total probability.