Posted by Janel on Saturday, April 24, 2010 at 11:22pm.
You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water the plant will die with probability 0.85. With water it will die with probability 0.55. You are 89 % certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant.
You come back from the vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?

MATH: PROBABILITIES  Maddison, Sunday, April 25, 2010 at 12:22am
Well....
I am not %100 percent sure, but I think I have got the right answer.
10089%=11%
Then, 85% of 11% is 9% (rounded)
So I would say 9%

MATH: PROBABILITIES  Reiny, Sunday, April 25, 2010 at 9:12am
Does this question come form a section in your course called Markov's chains?
if so, then set up a transition matrix with 2 columns called Die, Live and
two rows called water, no water
that would be
.85 .15
.55 .45
multiply that by
.11 .89  did water is last number
to get
.58 .417
so there is a 58% chance your neighbour forgot to water.

MATH: PROBABILITIES  Anonymous, Wednesday, April 27, 2011 at 12:13am
both of you are wrong...

MATH: PROBABILITIES  Anonymous, Saturday, May 28, 2011 at 12:31pm
any one know the answer:(?

MATH: PROBABILITIES  Lex, Thursday, February 23, 2012 at 8:37pm
You need to use the rule of BAYES and the theorem of total probability.
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