Starting with a hypothetical population of 14,000 people and an even age distribution (1,000 in each age group from 1-5 to 66-70 years), assume that the population initially has a total fertility rate of 2.0 and an average life span of 70 years. Using the spreadsheet for exercises 1-3, estimate how the population will change from this generation to the next under each of the following conditions.
a. Total fertility rate and life expectancy remain constant.
b. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy remains constant.
c. Total fertility rate changes to 1.0; life expectancy remains constant.
d. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
e. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy decreases to 50.
F. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
Most developed countries have infant mortality rates of around 5 deaths per thousand live births, and some developing countries have infant mortality rates exceeding 100 deaths per 1,000 live births. How would either of these rates affect our final populations?
=original population + original population*60 years at .02 birth rate - 60 years of deaths (12 * 1000)
To estimate how the population will change under each of the given conditions, we will need to calculate the number of births, deaths, and survivors for each age group.
Step 1: Calculate the number of births in each age group:
To do this, we need to multiply the total fertility rate (TFR) by the number of women in each age group (assuming each woman gives birth once). The TFR is given as 2.0 in this case.
- For each age group, multiply the TFR (2.0) by the number of women in that age group (1,000).
For example, in the age group 1-5 years, the number of births would be: 2.0 * 1,000 = 2,000 births.
Step 2: Calculate the number of deaths in each age group:
To estimate the number of deaths, we need to know the average life span and the number of survivors in each age group.
- For each age group, subtract the number of births (from step 1) from the number of survivors in the previous age group.
For example, in the age group 1-5 years, there are no survivors from the previous age group (as it is the first age group), so the number of deaths would be: 1,000 - 2,000 = -1,000 deaths. Note that a negative value indicates that the population would need to be supplemented with immigrants to maintain the population size.
Step 3: Calculate the number of survivors in each age group:
To estimate the number of survivors, we need to account for both births and deaths in each age group.
- For each age group, calculate the sum of births (from step 1) and survivors from the previous age group (from step 2).
For example, in the age group 1-5 years, the number of survivors would be: 2,000 + 0 = 2,000 survivors.
By following these steps, you can calculate the number of births, deaths, and survivors for each age group under each given condition (a-f).
Regarding the impact of infant mortality rates on the final populations, higher infant mortality rates would decrease the number of survivors in the younger age groups, leading to a lower population size in subsequent generations. Conversely, lower infant mortality rates would result in more survivors and potentially higher population size in future generations.