Exercise 2. Starting with a hypothetical population of 14,000 people and an even age distribution (1,000 in each age group from 1-5 to 66-70 years), assume that the population initially has a total fertility rate of 2.0 and an average life span of 70 years. Using the spreadsheet for exercises 1-3, estimate how the population will change from this generation to the next under each of the following conditions.
a. Total fertility rate and life expectancy remain constant.
b. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy remains constant.
c. Total fertility rate changes to 1.0; life expectancy remains constant.
d. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
e. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy decreases to 50.
F. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
Most developed countries have infant mortality rates of around 5 deaths per thousand live births, and some developing countries have infant mortality rates exceeding 100 deaths per 1,000 live births. How would either of these rates affect our final populations? Use a speadsheet.
Instructions: Fill in numbers to calculate Future Population in the assigned scenarios
Total Current Future Future
Current Fertility Life Life Population
Population Rate Expectancy Expectancy = CP * TFR/2 * FLE / CLE
a 14000 ERR
b 14000 ERR
c 14000 ERR
d 14000 ERR
e 14000 ERR
f 14000 ERR
Future Future
Population Population
(without IMR) IMR (per 1000) Including IMR
= FP * (1000-IMR)/1000
a ERR ERR
b ERR ERR
c ERR ERR
d ERR ERR
e ERR ERR
f ERR ERR
a ERR ERR
b ERR ERR
c ERR ERR
d ERR ERR
e ERR ERR
f ERR ERR
I do not have the spreadsheet nor do I know the meaning of CP * TFR/2 * FLE / CLE, IMR, FP or ERR to help you. These undefined abbreviations need explanation.
Also, we do not do your homework for you. However, we would be glad to help you understand how to do the work, if the question is stated clearly enough.
I was needing some understanding to my assignment. I didn't want you to do it for me.
To estimate how the population will change in each scenario, we need to use the given formula: Future Population = Current Population * Total Fertility Rate / 2 * Future Life Expectancy / Current Life Expectancy.
a. Total fertility rate and life expectancy remain constant.
In this scenario, we assume the total fertility rate remains at 2.0 and the average life expectancy remains at 70 years. To calculate the future population, we substitute these values into the formula: Future Population = 14,000 * 2.0 / 2 * 70 / 70 = 14,000. Therefore, the future population remains the same as the current population.
b. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy remains constant.
In this scenario, we assume the total fertility rate increases to 4.0, while the average life expectancy remains constant at 70 years. Using the formula, we calculate: Future Population = 14,000 * 4.0 / 2 * 70 / 70 = 28,000. Therefore, the future population doubles.
c. Total fertility rate changes to 1.0; life expectancy remains constant.
In this scenario, we assume the total fertility rate decreases to 1.0, while the average life expectancy remains constant at 70 years. Using the formula: Future Population = 14,000 * 1.0 / 2 * 70 / 70 = 7,000. Therefore, the future population halves.
d. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
In this scenario, we assume the total fertility rate remains at 2.0, but the average life expectancy increases to 100 years. Using the formula: Future Population = 14,000 * 2.0 / 2 * 100 / 70 = 40,000. Therefore, the future population increases.
e. Total fertility rate remains at 2.0; life expectancy decreases to 50.
In this scenario, we assume the total fertility rate remains at 2.0, but the average life expectancy decreases to 50 years. Using the formula: Future Population = 14,000 * 2.0 / 2 * 50 / 70 = 10,000. Therefore, the future population decreases.
f. Total fertility rate changes to 4.0; life expectancy increases to 100.
In this scenario, we assume the total fertility rate increases to 4.0, and the average life expectancy increases to 100 years. Using the formula: Future Population = 14,000 * 4.0 / 2 * 100 / 70 = 80,000. Therefore, the future population significantly increases.
To calculate the impact of infant mortality rate (IMR), we can use the formula: Future Population (Including IMR) = Future Population (without IMR) * (1000 - IMR) / 1000.
We are not given the specific infant mortality rate, so we can only provide the general formula. To calculate the future population considering infant mortality rates, substitute the appropriate IMR value into the formula.
Note: The "ERR" placeholders in the spreadsheet indicate that the values need to be filled in based on the given data and calculations explained above.