If you roll a die 38 times and 12 of the rolls result in a "5," what empirical probability was observed for the event "5"?
Statistics 250 - Writeacher, Thursday, March 18, 2010 at 8:13am
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Statistics 250 - drwls, Thursday, March 18, 2010 at 11:19am
The empirical probability, which is "what you measured by experiment" is 12/38 = 6/19, with 38 tosses.
If you had rolled the die thousands of times, you should have approached a probability of 1/6, if the die was not "loaded".
It is not unusual to get different empirical values tfrom the true probability, when there are relatively few samples.