Posted by B.B. on Monday, August 3, 2009 at 8:03am.
Wrong question please don't answer. Thanks.
No, that is not right. Doesn't 69% seem too high a probability for drawing spades twice in a row?
This is a conditional probability. A key phrase is "...IF the first card was not a spade." You have to assume that the first card was NOT a spade. Then the deck before the second draw has 13 spades out of 52. The same applies to the third draw, since the drawn spades are replaced. The answer is (13/52)^2 = 1/16
If we consider "without replacement", the second draw starts with only 51 cards and 13 spades.
The probability of success would be the product of the probabilities of the second and third draws, namely
(13/51)*(12/50)=26/425
I did the with replacement case by mistake. Careless of me. Sorry
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