Posted by **Josephine** on Tuesday, July 21, 2009 at 2:47pm.

) Laura McCarthy, the owner of Riverside Bakery, has been approached by insurance underwriters trying to convince her to purchase flood insurance. According to local meteorologists, there is a 0.01 probability that the river will flood next year. Riverside’s profits for the coming year depend on whether Laura buys the flood insurance and whether the river floods. The profits (which take into consideration the $10,000 premium for the flood insurance) for the four possible combinations of Laura’s choice and river conditions are:

The River

Does Not

Flood Floods

Insurance No Flood

Decision Insurance $200,000 -$1,000,000

Get Flood

Insurance $190,000 $200,000

a. If Laura decides not to purchase flood insurance, use the appropriate discrete probability distribution to determine Riverside’s expected profit next year.

b. If Laura purchase the flood insurance, what will be Riverside’s expected profit next year?

c. Given the results in parts (a) and (b), provide Laura with a recommendation.

- Statistics -
**PsyDAG**, Wednesday, July 22, 2009 at 11:19am
The four possibilities are:

Buy, flood

Buy, no flood

Don't buy, flood

Don't buy, no flood

However, since there are no estimates of the profits from the previous year, more data is needed to estimate the profits under those conditions.

I hope this helps. Thanks for asking.

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