Posted by **Confused** on Thursday, May 21, 2009 at 11:40am.

The following data represent total personnel expenses for the Palmdale Human

Service Agency for past four fiscal years:

20X1 $5,250,000

20X2 $5,500,000

20X3 $6,000,000

20X4 $6,750,000

Forecast personnel expenses for fiscal year 20X5 using moving averages, weighted

moving averages, exponential smoothing, and time series regression. For moving

averages and weighted moving averages, use only the data for the past three fiscal

years. For weighted moving averages, assign a value of 1 to the data for 20X2, a

value of 2 to the data for 20X3, and a value of 3 to the data for 20X4. For exponential

smoothing, assume that the last forecast for fiscal year 20X4 was $6,300,000.

You decide on the alpha to be used for exponential smoothing. For time series

regression, use the data for all four fiscal years. Which forecast will you use? Why?

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