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October 31, 2014

October 31, 2014

Posted by **Michael** on Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 12:01am.

Year population (thousands)

1950 132

1960 187

1970 254

1980 346

1990 466

2000 657

I need help in analyzing this data so that I can determine the year in which the population will reach 1,000,000 people. how would i make at least two estimates using different regression models.

Thank you so much i would really appreciate it if you could help me

- Math question -
**drwls**, Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 1:38amYou could use a least-squares linear fit, quadratic fit, or exponential fit. I'd favor the later. An easy way to do it would be by doing a linear fit of the log of the population.

Year Pop Log Pop

1950 132 2.12

1960 187 2.27

1970 254 2.40

1980 346 2.54

1990 466 2.67

2000 657 2.82

Note that the log(base 10)of the population changes by an average of 0.14 per decade

That is easily extrapolated to:

2010 (912) 2.96

2013 1000 3.00

- Math question -
**vilmer**, Saturday, December 13, 2008 at 2:43amas a Geometric Sequence, r=1.4

GROWTH FORMULA

C=Co(1+(r/100))^n

C=population you want to find(1 million)

Co=initial population (132 thousands)

r=1.4 so r/100=0.014 ,n is No. years

Hence,

1,000=132(1.014)^n

1.014^n=1000/132

n= log(100/132)/log1.014

and then you ll find a value, let's say x

you add x+1950=and get the year

I think it's right..you can work it out and post whether it worked or not.

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