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September 2, 2014

September 2, 2014

Posted by **Tony** on Monday, September 8, 2008 at 11:45pm.

over a life time an average driver takes 50,000 trips.

what is the probability of an accident over a lifetime

- calculus -
**drwls**, Tuesday, September 9, 2008 at 12:07amThat would be one MINUS the probabilty of NOT having an accident 50,000 trips in a row. That is equal to

P = 1 - (1/4*10^6)^50,000

= 1 - (0.99999975)^5*10^4 = 1 - .9876

= 0.0124 , or 1 in 80.

This must refer to FATAL accidents. Most drivers have at least one accident during their lifetime.

The 1 in 4 million refers to the probability of a fatality in a single trip. You did not state all the facts of the problem.

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