posted by virginia on .
I have an ordianry deck of 52 cards, which has 26 red and 26 black cards. A friend shuffles the deck and draws cards at random, replacing the card and reshuffling after each guess. I attempt to guess the color of each card.
A. what is the probability that I guess the color correctly by chance?
B. Is the answer in part a based on the relative-frequency interpretation of probability or is it a personal probability?
C. Suppose another friend has never tried the experiment but believes he has ESP and can guess correctly with probability .60. Is the value of .60 a relative-frequency probability or a personal probability. Explain
D. Suppose another friend guessed the color of 1000 cards and got 600 correct. The friend claims she has ESP and has a .60 probability of guessing correctly. Is the value of .60 a relative-frequency probability or a personal probability. Explain
It's been many years since I took a statistics class, so I don't remember all of the vocabulary.
However, when you have a 50-50 chance of getting the answer right, then the normal range will be somewhere between 30% and 70% correct answers.
The answer to part a) is 1/2
As for the others, I have never heard of "personal probability"
There are two kinds of probability:
1. Empirical Probability which is based on the results of experiments to collect data about an event
2. Mathematical Probability base on the concepts of mathematics
Any attempt to combine such ideas as ESP with the beautiful laws of Mathematics would be alien to most mathematicians.