Posted by **Amelie** on Sunday, February 17, 2008 at 2:56pm.

In a certain election, the incumbent Republican will run against the Democratic nominee. There are three Democratic candidates, D1, D2 and D3, whose chances of gaining the Democratic nomination are .50, .35 and .15, respectively. Here are the chances that the Republican will win against each of these possible Democratic nominees:

vs. D1: 0.60 vs. D2: 0.50 vs. D3: 0.40

(a) Name (but do not give) the probability formula that is needed to find the chance that the Republican will win the election.

(b) Find the probability that the Republican will win the election.

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Im not sure how to start.

- Intro to Probability -
**Damon**, Sunday, February 17, 2008 at 3:56pm
a

two rules -addition rule (special case for mutually exclusive events) and multiplication rule (for independent events)

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b

probability of winning against D1 = probability of D1 being nominee * probability of Beating D1 if nominee

= .5 *.6 = .3

same multiply for candidate D2

= .35 * .5 = .175

same for D3

.15 * .4 = .06

now chances of winning = sum - any intersections but there are no intersections, only one democratic candidate in the end so = .3+.175+.06 = .535

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