David Hassenzahl discusses the relative risks of eating peanut butter contaminated with aflatoxin and apple juice contaminated with UDMH, a degradation product of Alar, in the Power Point presentation in the Week Five, Module 5 Conference. The following Table shows his input data.
Variable Units Average 5th %ile 95th %ile Distribution
Peanut butter intake g/day 11.38 2.00 31.86 Lognormal
Apple juice intake g/day 136.84 16.02 430.02 Lognormal
Aflatoxin concentration ug/kg 2.82 1.00 6.5 Lognormal
UDMH concentration ug/kg 13.75 0.5 42.00 Lognormal
Aflatoxin potency kg-day/mg 17.5 4.02 28.33 Normal
UDMH potency kg-day/mg 0.49 0.00 0.85 Normal
a. Calculate the daily cancer risk for a child who weighs 20 kg and who eats an average amount of peanut butter
b. Do the same for a 20 kg child who drinks an average amount of apple juice.
NOTE: Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight
c. Calculate the maximum daily cancer risks for peanut butter and apple juice based on the 95th percentiles.
The Table does not appear in your post.
Variable Units Average 5th %ile 95th %ile Distribution
Peanut butter intake g/day 11.38 2.00 31.86 Lognormal
Apple juice intake g/day 136.84 16.02 430.02 Lognormal
Aflatoxin concentration ug/kg 2.82 1.00 6.5 Lognormal
UDMH concentration ug/kg 13.75 0.5 42.00 Lognormal
Aflatoxin potency kg-day/mg 17.5 4.02 28.33 Normal
UDMH potency kg-day/mg 0.49 0.00 0.85 Normal
What are the advantages and disadvantages of animal studies and epidemiological studies for establishing dose-response relationships?
To calculate the daily cancer risk for a child who weighs 20 kg and eats an average amount of peanut butter, we can use the formula:
Daily cancer risk = Intake x Concentration x Potency / Body Weight
Let's plug in the values from the table:
Peanut butter intake = 11.38 g/day
Aflatoxin concentration = 2.82 ug/kg
Aflatoxin potency = 17.5 kg-day/mg
Child's body weight = 20 kg
Daily cancer risk = 11.38 g/day x 2.82 ug/kg x 17.5 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
To get the final answer, we need to convert the units from micrograms (ug) to milligrams (mg) and cancel out the units:
Daily cancer risk = (11.38 g) x (2.82 ug/kg) x (17.5 kg-day/mg) / (20 kg)
= 451.4512 ug x 17.5 / 20 mg-day
= 395.4072 / 20 mg-day
= 19.77036 mg-day
Therefore, the daily cancer risk for a 20 kg child eating an average amount of peanut butter is approximately 19.77036 mg-day.
To calculate the daily cancer risk for a 20 kg child who drinks an average amount of apple juice, we follow the same steps using the respective values from the table:
Apple juice intake = 136.84 g/day
UDMH concentration = 13.75 ug/kg
UDMH potency = 0.49 kg-day/mg
Daily cancer risk = 136.84 g/day x 13.75 ug/kg x 0.49 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
= 286.15675 mg-day
Therefore, the daily cancer risk for a 20 kg child drinking an average amount of apple juice is approximately 286.15675 mg-day.
To calculate the maximum daily cancer risk for peanut butter based on the 95th percentile, we use the same formula with the appropriate values:
Peanut butter intake (95th percentile) = 31.86 g/day
Aflatoxin concentration (95th percentile) = 6.5 ug/kg
Aflatoxin potency = 17.5 kg-day/mg
Maximum daily cancer risk for peanut butter = 31.86 g/day x 6.5 ug/kg x 17.5 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
= 711.327 mg-day
Therefore, the maximum daily cancer risk for peanut butter, based on the 95th percentile, is approximately 711.327 mg-day.
To calculate the maximum daily cancer risk for apple juice based on the 95th percentile, we use the same formula with the appropriate values:
Apple juice intake (95th percentile) = 430.02 g/day
UDMH concentration (95th percentile) = 42 ug/kg
UDMH potency = 0.49 kg-day/mg
Maximum daily cancer risk for apple juice = 430.02 g/day x 42 ug/kg x 0.49 kg-day/mg / 20 kg
= 5461.227 mg-day
Therefore, the maximum daily cancer risk for apple juice, based on the 95th percentile, is approximately 5461.227 mg-day.